标签: 财务报告 决策 有用性
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上传用户 杨静     
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上传时间 2020-02-19
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ppt " " Financial Accounting Theory Chapter 3: The Decision Usefulness Approach to Financial Reporting" "潘克勤 pankq2005@126.com" "3-2" "2020/2/19" "Outline" "Non-ideal world Historical cost Decision usefulness Who How Theory of decision Theory of investment" "3-3" "2020/2/19" "本章的结构" "确定投资人为信息需求者——投资人投资决策过程——非理想环境 下会计信息的作用——怎么提供信息——财务会计理论及其规范" "3-4" "2020/2/19" "本章的目的" "1、通过第二章的讨论可知,现实环境与理想环境差异很大,现值基础会计不可行! 2、但是基于实际环境的会计还是一直存在,而且在发挥作用。 3、为什么基于现实环境的、以历史成本计量属性为主要特征的现代财务会计,其信息是有用的? 4、本章重在解释第三个问题:现实环境下,公司未来现金流事件集、相应概率、折现率,全部都不确定——投资人先验性估计——增量信息(历史信息为主的财务报表)——改变先验性估计——投资决策" "3-5" "2020/2/19" "本章的目的" "5、财务报表为什么有信息含量? 第一,如果财务会计完全面向未来(现金流折现),不言而喻; 第二,如果以历史成本为主或者混合计量体系,在准则质量越高、监管越到位情况下,当期财务报表一个方面越能说明现在,更进一步也能说明未来——会计信息质量! 6、本章还有一个目的:在现实环境下,怎么做,信息会更有用?" "3-6" "2020/2/19" "3.1 The Decision Usefulness Perspective" "理想的现值会计环境是不存在的 “在非理想状态下,我们已经无法直接从财务报表中阐释公司的价值”。 “假如我们不能提供理论上正确的财务报表,至少应该让历史成本报表更加有用” 历史成本会计虽然存在相关性较差的弊端,但是信息可靠性有一定保证,因而历史成本会计还是有用的 现实的选择:在历史成本会计会计基础上,采取措施让会计信息有用性增强! 对谁有用:投资决策有用!证券市场的投资人作为重要预期使用者,除此之外,债权人、管理者、工会、准则制定者、政府等——决策有用观! 怎样的信息才决策有用? 决策有用观(The Decision Usefulness Perspective)——受托责任观(The Accountability Perspective )" "3-7" "2020/2/19" "3.1 The Decision Usefulness Perspective" "" "" "" "3-8" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "" "3-9" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "在没有获得其他 信息的情况下, 会怎么选择?" "债券!! " "3-10" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "假定该投资人没有匆忙作出决策,而是耐心等待被投资企业财务报表的发布,而且企业披露了“好消息”(GN) " "3-11" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "=0.30 " "=0.80 " "=0.10 " " P(L) —— 低盈利能力的先验概率" "=0.70 " "3-12" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "3-13" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "" "" "3-14" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "3-15" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "例3-2" "Consider an investor with $10,000 to invest in one of the following mutually exclusive acts: a1: buy shares of x Ltd. For $10,000 a2: buy Canada Savings Bonds (CSB, Interest rate 10%) for $10,000 Let there be 3 “states of nature”: θ1: shares fall 10% in market value θ2: shares hold steady θ3: shares rise 80%" "3-16" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" " Payoff Table" "P(θ1) = .05 P(θ2) = .70 P(θ3) = .25 1.00 " " Prior Probabilities" "3-17" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "Assume the investor uses expected monetary value as a decision criterion (EMV) EMV (a1): (.05)(-1000) + 0 + .25(8000) = 1950 EMV (a2): (.05)(1000) + .70(1000) +.25 (1000) = 1000 Therefore, if investor acts now, should take a1. But: May be worthwhile to secure additional information. " "3-18" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "Think of the financial statements of X Ltd. as an information system conveying information about probabilities of θ. Assume the financial statements will give one of the following 3 mutually exclusive messages: " "NI: Net Income SE: Shareholders’ Equity CA: Current Assets CL: Current Liabilities " "3-19" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "The information system can be characterized by the following table:" "These conditional probabilities, or likelihoods, are the probabilities of receiving the various messages conditional on each state being true." "这些条件概率,或者可能性,是指假定未来(盈利能力)预期是真实的情况下,当期财务报表传递各种消息的可能性!" "3-20" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "Now, for any message, the decision maker can revise his/her prior probabilities using Bayes’ Theorem. Suppose that m1 was received from the financial statements." "3-21" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "Note the EMV of each act is" "So if m1 were received act a2 would be chosen." "3-22" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "You should verify that if m2 was received:" "And the optional act is then a1 with EMV of $1444.6." "EMV(a1)=(0.0370)(-1000)+0+(0.1852)(8000)=1444.6" "3-23" "2020/2/19" "3.2 Single-Person Decision Theory" "EMV(a1)=(0.0079)(-1000)+0+(0.5512)(8000)=4401.7" "And the optional act is then a1 with EMV of $4401.7" "3-24" "2020/2/19" "3.3 The Information System" " One of the Most Important Text Concepts Conditional on Each State of Nature (i.e., future firm performance), gives Objective Probability of the GN or BN in the Financial Statements" "3-25" "2020/2/19" "3.3 The Information System" "由例3-1看出,P(GN/H)和P(BN/L)蕴藏有信息。什么信息?" "由例3-2看出,P(m1/θ1) , P(m1/θ2) , P(m1/θ3 ) ; P(m2/θ1) , P(m2/θ2) , P(m2/θ3 ) ;以及P(m3/θ1) , P(m3/θ2) , P(m3/θ3 ) ,均蕴藏有信息。什么信息?" "上述P(GN/H)和P(BN/L)以及P(mi/θi) 表象为条件概率,实质上财务报表本身的信息质量,也即未来盈利能力好(坏)的前提下,当期财务报表披露好(坏)消息的概率" "财务报表尽管没有明确告知公司价值,没有以现值为基础计算公司未来现金流价值,但是报表信息是有用的。" "联系当期财务报表和未来财务报表的桥梁是这些条件概率,这些条件概率称之为“信息系统” (The Information System)" "3-26" "2020/2/19" "3.3 The Information System" "Information is Evidence that has the Potential to Affect an Individual’s Decision Individuals receive information all the time Individual-specific Are financial statements information?" "3-27" "2020/2/19" "3.4 The Investor" "本节的目的 决策有用观建立在投资人规避风险、理性决策的基础上 正是因为他们是理性的、规避风险的,才会寻求和利用信息,财务信息才可能有用 这个假定与现实世界也是基本吻合的,而且得到了实证检验 " "3-28" "2020/2/19" "3.4 The Investor" "3-29" "2020/2/19" "3.5 组合多样化的原则" "1、投资者对于风险的态度 在既定风险下,要求尽可能高的收益 在既定收益下,要求尽量降低风险 而且不同的投资人对于风险的态度不同 效用! 2、投资者的策略之一 投资组合,降低风险 如资产负债率、利息保障倍数、流动比率等均可以通过组合分散掉一部分 那么,风险到底怎么衡量呢?投资组合怎么降低了风险?" "3-30" "2020/2/19" "3.5 组合多样化的原则" "例3-3(教材P69,例3-2) " "上述概率既可以是先验概率,也可以是后验概率 " "怎么决策?将收益和风险均因素均包括在内的效用函数! " "" "3-31" "2020/2/19" "3.5 组合多样化的原则" "该投资人会否决策呢?" "3-32" "2020/2/19" "3.5 组合多样化的原则" "例3-4(教材P70)" "0.4995? " "0.2405? " "0.1755? " "0.0845? " "1.0000? " "相关性!! 组合的 奥妙所在 ! " "3-33" "2020/2/19" "3.5 组合多样化的原则" "3-34" "2020/2/19" "3.5 组合多样化的原则" "3、为什么出现上述现象? 系统性因素(风险):全经济因素、全市场因素 利率、汇率、经济发展水平等大环境 上述因素会对所有企业产生影响,因而A、B公司发生高盈利或者低盈利的几率不是相互独立的,而是相互关联的。 公司特定因素(风险):公司管理水平差异、新专利、罢工、机器损坏 如果所有的因素均是经济层面的,那么所有公司股票回报完全相关;如果所有因素均是公司层面,那么回报将完全独立 现实中,两种情况兼而有之!" "3-35" "2020/2/19" "3.5 组合多样化的原则" "4、本节的目的? 在既定收益下,降低风险;或者在既定风险下,要求高收益,是投资人的原则 投资组合可以在期望收益不变的情况下,消除公司特定风险、降低投资组合的投资报酬率的方差(变化程度、风险),提高效用水平" "3-36" "2020/2/19" "3.6 最优投资决策" "3-37" "2020/2/19" "3.6 最优投资决策" "" "" "3-38" "2020/2/19" "3.6 最优投资决策" "3-39" "2020/2/19" "3.6 最优投资决策" "3-40" "2020/2/19" "3.7 计算和解释β" "1、什么是β? " "3-41" "2020/2/19" "3.7 计算和解释β" "例3-5" "3-42" "2020/2/19" "3.7 计算和解释β" "假定:其实也不是假定,而是来自于历史经验 " "P(A高/M高)=0.90 P(A低/M高)=0.10" "P(A高/M低)=0.10 P(A低/M低)=0.90" "P(M高)=0.80 ,RMH=0.10 P(M低)=0.20 ,RML=0.025 P(MR) =0.80*0.10+0.20*0.025=0.085" "3-43" "2020/2/19" "3.7 计算和解释β" "P(A高M高)= P(M高)* P(A高/M高)=0.8*0.9=0.72 P(A高M低)= P(M低)* P(A高/M低)=0.2*0.1=0.02 P(A低M高)= P(M高)* P(A低/M高)=0.8*0.1=0.08 P(A低M低)= P(M低)* P(A低/M低)=0.2*0.9=0.18 " "3-44" "2020/2/19" "3.7 计算和解释β" "2、怎么解释β ? 贝塔系数是统计学上的概念,它所反映的是某一投资对象相对于大盘的表现情况。 其绝对值越大,显示其收益变化幅度相对于大盘的变化幅度越大;绝对值越小,显示其变化幅度相对于大盘越小。 如果是负值,则显示其变化的方向与大盘的变化方向相反;大盘涨的时候它跌,大盘跌的时候它涨。 " "3-45" "2020/2/19" "3.7 计算和解释β" "3、财务会计信息有什么用? 让投资人更好地来估计客户的β值!!" "3-46" "2020/2/19" " 谢谢各位!
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